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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.