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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."